2013 Integrated Circuit (IC), Packaging, and Economic Outlook

After 2009 being the worst depression since the Great Depression in the 1930’s through the mid-1940’s, the integrated circuit (IC) industry had a boom in the second half of 2010. 2011 began well on the heels of this boom, but a slowdown in the market in the second half of that year caused a negative growth rate, a pattern that repeated in 2012. The inventory corrections in these two years did not alter the fact that both 2011 and 2012 still had near-record-breaking unit and revenue figures. And of course the growth rates of 2010, with revenue growing 40 percent over 2009 and units 35.5 percent, were not sustainable.

Sales of tablets, smart phones, and automobiles are going well, and they are carrying the rest of the economy forward into recovery. Apple Computer had one blockbuster product after another, with the iPod, iPad, and iPhone. Apple, once the most valuable company in the world, is now number two behind Samsung. Producing portable electronic gadgets that connect people electronically with the world around them is clearly a good business model. Even in the depths of the recession of 2009, electronic gadgets that connected people via the Internet and sold for under $400 did well.

IC Revenue

Figure 1 illustrates IC revenue growth for the entire IC chip market. Revenue growth will be a steady increase through2017, asimilar trend to unit growth, and will have a 5.2 percent CAGR. The packaging revenue percent of IC revenue is shown at the bottom of this figure. The packaging revenue percent of IC revenue is displayed as well. Though it varies greatly by device type, overall packaging consumes slightly more than 15 percent of the total chip revenue and will rise to slightly more than 16 percent.

Figure 2  IC and Packaging Revenue Forecast and Percent of Packaging of Total, 2011—2017

For more in depth forecasts on IC packaging, please refer to New Venture Research’s newly published report, The Worldwide IC Packaging Market, 2013 Edition.  This report presents forecasts for each semiconductor product type, and segments these products by package family and I/O count range. Packaging revenue figures are displayed for each segment, based on prices charged in the outsourced assembly and test (OSAT) market. The package families are then rolled up by I/O count and semiconductor product. In doing so, the report generates the total value of the IC packaging industry.

Next, the report presents NVR’s continuing, extensive coverage of the OSAT market. OSATs will continue to assume a larger share of the world’s IC packaging business. The report breaks the OSAT market down by package families and major product categories providing units and revenue for each category. To further assess this group of companies, the report profiles the activities of the world’s largest OSAT companies and the packages they offer.

For more information on how to obtain this report, please contact Karen Williams at kwilliams@newventureresearch.com, Tel: (408) 244-1100.  Or, Sandra Winkler at slwinkler@newventureresearch.com, (650) 299-9365.

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